Hurricane Irene 8/22/2011 Forecast Probability Cone
The NHC official 3/5 day forecast cone of uncertainty in shapefile format is an experimental products that the National Hurricane Center is testing during the 2008 hurricane season.
The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by
enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc).
The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year
sample fall within the circle. Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of a
tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time. It is
important to note that the area affected by a tropical cyclone can extend well beyond the
confines of the cone enclosing the most likely track area of the center.
|the sequential numbering of tropical cyclones for a specific forecast basin according to when the first advisory is issued||
9.00 to 9.00
|name given to each tropical cyclone for which the National Hurricane Center is writing forecast advisories||Text column (no statistics available)|
|category of the tropical cyclone according to the initial intensity||Text column (no statistics available)|
|the ocean where the tropical cyclone is located||Text column (no statistics available)|
|the date in which an advisory is issued||Text column (no statistics available)|
|the time interval for which the forecast of a tropical cyclone is provided in graphical format||
72.00 to 120.00
|the sequential numbering of forecast advisories for each tropical cyclone||
8 to 8